That's a really tough spot to be in! When you're dealing with critical components that have 16-week lead times, it feels like you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, holding extra inventory ties up your cash and risks obsolescence. On the other, production downtime can be devastating for your business. Here's what I'd suggest based on current supply chain thinking:

1. **Calculate the true cost of downtime** - Figure out exactly what an hour of production stoppage costs you in lost revenue, customer penalties, and reputation damage. This gives you a benchmark for how much inventory risk you can afford to take.

2. **Consider strategic safety stock** - Instead of holding massive inventory, calculate safety stock based on your risk tolerance and the criticality of these AB components. Even a small buffer can prevent complete shutdowns.

3. **Explore dual-sourcing** - If possible, find alternative suppliers or components. McKinsey reports that 73% of companies are making progress on dual-sourcing strategies to reduce single-point failures.

4. **Improve forecasting** - Work closely with your production and sales teams to get better demand visibility. The more accurate your forecasts, the less buffer stock you need.

5. **Consider consignment inventory** - See if your supplier would be willing to hold inventory for you, releasing it as needed. This shifts some of the financial burden while keeping components available.

6. **Regular risk assessment** - Continuously monitor your supply chain for early warning signs of disruptions. Proactive monitoring can give you time to react before you run out.

It's really about finding that sweet spot where the cost of holding some extra inventory is less than the potential cost of production downtime. What's your current inventory holding cost versus your downtime cost per hour?